What Are The Guaranteed Hit Rates in Japanese Booster Boxes?

Everyone talks about the guaranteed hit rates in Japanese booster boxes, and it's why collectors can count on Japanese booster boxes to never leave them without a new addition to their binder. However, few know what exactly The Pokemon Company guarantees in each box. Here’s the breakdown.

Last Updated 11/7/25

MEGA Era Guaranteed Hit Rates:

In our current era of Mega Evolution sets, Pokemon has near identical hit rates to the previous era, Scarlet & Violet. The hit rates by booster box are as follows:

Main Expansion Booster Boxes	Booster Box Guaranteed Hits
Inferno X	1 Super Rare or higher (can be a Special Art Rare or Mega Ultra Rare) 1 Item Card Super Rare 3 Art Rares 5 Double Rares
Mega Symphonia Mega Brave	1 Super Rare or higher (can be a Special Art Rare or Mega Ultra Rare) 1 Item Card Super Rare 3 Art Rares 4 Double Rares

High Class / Specialty Booster Boxes	Booster Box Guaranteed Hits
MEGA Dream ex	TBA

With the MEGA era, it seems as if The Pokemon Company solidified the overall hit rates, and are comfortable with making small adjustments that promote the card game in Japan. We can see this through the introduction of a guaranteed SR item card (which did not exist in Scarlet & Violet boxes), and an increase in the standard ex hit rate in Inferno X.

Scarlet & Violet Era Guaranteed Hit Rates:

This is the era where guaranteed hit rates truly became a staple of collecting in Japanese. Aside from the introduction of the ACE SPEC cards in certain sets, you'll notice consistency across all standard booster boxes:

Main Expansion Booster Boxes	Booster Box Guaranteed Hits
Super Electric Breaker Paradise Dragona Stellar Miracle Night Wanderer Mask of Change Crimson Haze Wild Force Cyber Judge	1 Super Rare or higher (can be a Special Art Rare or Ultra Rare) 1 ACE SPEC 3 Art Rares 4 Double Rares
The Glory of Team Rocket Heat Wave Arena Battle Partners Ancient Roar Future Flash Raging Surf Ruler of the Black Flame Clay Burst Snow Hazard Triplet Beat Scarlet ex Violet ex	1 Super Rare or higher (can be a Special Art Rare or Ultra Rare) 3 Art Rares 4 Double Rares

High Class / Specialty Booster Boxes	Booster Box Guaranteed Hits
Black Bolt White Flare (Applicable to both non-deluxe and deluxe booster boxes)	1 Super Rare or higher (can be a Special Art Rare or Black White Rare) 1 Master Ball Reverse Holo 4 Art Rares 4 Double Rares
Terastal Festival	1 Special Art Rare 3 Reverse Holos 1 ACE SPEC 9 Double Rares
Shiny Treasure ex	1 Shiny Super Rare 3 Baby Shinies 9 Double Rares
Pokemon 151	1 Super Rare or higher (can be a Special Art Rare or Ultra Rare) 1 Master Ball Reverse Holo 3 Art Rares 4 Double Rares

Although the specialty booster boxes and High Class booster boxes vastly differ in hit rates depending on the construction of the set, the main expansions are nearly identical in guarantees. Sets that contain ACE SPECs guarantee 1 ACE SPEC per booster box as the only difference in hit rates.

Sword & Shield Era:

For the majority of Sword & Shield booster boxes, you can still expect one SR or higher along with a couple of V cards which are the ex cards of the Sword & Shield era. However, guaranteed hit rates are not as organized and documented in this era without official confirmation from The Pokemon Company. Here's what we know:

Main Expansion Booster Boxes
Eevee Heroes Paradigm Trigger	1 Super Rare or higher 2 VSTAR 4 V
Incandescent Arcana Dark Phantasma Battle Region	1 Super Rare or higher 1 Radiant Pokemon 3 Character Rares

High Class / Specialty Booster Boxes
VSTAR Universe	1 Special Art Rare 1 Radiant Pokemon 1 SR Energy 3 Art Rares
VMAX Climax	1 Character Super Rare 3 Character Rares
Shiny Star V	1 Shiny Super Rare 3 Baby Shinies
Pokemon GO	1 Radiant Pokemon 1 Ditto Card

Brush Up Before You Buy!

You can always refer back to this blog to get updated information on any Japanese booster box you want to buy, but here's an easy recap of the evolution of guaranteed hit rates over the modern sets:

• The Sword & Shield era laid the groundwork for guaranteed hits through experimentation, especially with the High Class booster boxes and the last few sets leading up to the Scarlet & Violet Era.

• Scarlet & Violet introduced true guaranteed hit rates with multiple ex cards, art rares, and an SR or higher in every booster box.

• Our current MEGA era continues the trends that the Scarlet & Violet era pioneered. We're seeing an additional item SR card an standard ex card added to the guarantees, possibly to promote the accessibility of the card game in Japan.

If you're looking to buy sealed Japanese booster boxes, look no further than Mirai Card Shop. Guaranteed hits are per sealed booster box, and Mirai Card Shop ensures that all booster boxes are imported directly from Japanese card shops. We pay the tariffs, handle 100% authentic product, and ship booster boxes in their original factory shrink wrap for collectors across the United States. Click on any links you see in the guaranteed hit tables or visit here to start shopping Japanese booster boxes.